Our hotelAVE Hospitality Dashboard 1Q25 is now available!
- STR and HVS made minor downward revisions to their 2025 RevPAR forecast; STR lowered 2026 RevPAR growth from 3.1% to 1.8% and a recent Wall Street investor sentiment survey forecasts a RevPAR decline of 0.9%. Fiscal policy uncertainty around trade, economic uncertainty reflected in the stock market and reductions in government travel weigh on RevPAR expectations for the remainder of 2025. Public companies are reporting reduced full year guidance and 1Q25 shadow supply RevPAR was down versus STLY in most markets.
- Tourist visa travel (which represents 75%+ of visitors to the US) was down from all regions except the Middle East. Inbound visitors from Canada and Mexico, accounting for 50% of total international travel, is projected to be down as much as 70% versus 2024.
- Room night demand growth in the highest rated segments shrunk through end of April YTD vs STLY. Operators also report slower booking decisions for groups for 2H25 and 2026.
- Borrowing rates moved up since year end due to April’s capital market volatility. Leveraged debt funds and CMBS lenders incurred higher spreads from their line lenders and passed those increases on to hotel borrowers. Brokers report robust demand for refinancing with pricing gaps still prevalent in transaction markets.
- Orlando, Dallas, Nashville, and Washington DC have the largest supply of recently opened hotels while New York, Phoenix, and Dallas have the most hotel rooms under construction. Tariffs, expensive construction debt and macro uncertainty may slow the near-term growth of new supply.
- Flex/Flow to GOP was surprisingly strong 1Q25 considering the strong growth in Labor PAR. Tight employment markets and recent renewals of collective bargaining agreements with above inflationary increases will continue to challenge GOP margins.
Download the full summary to stay up-to-date: hotelAVE Hospitality Dashboard 1Q25
