4Q25 Hospitality Dashboard

Our hotelAVE Hospitality Dashboard 4Q25 is now available!

There is significant divergence in RevPAR growth estimates for 2026 with ranging from -0.1% to 2.2%. We forecasted FIFA World Cup to drive 0.4% of the 2026 RevPAR growth but see risk for international inbound relative to current world events and potential boycotts. 2%+ GDP growth and a favorable holiday calendar are positive drivers while consumer spending will continue to slow.
Luxury and Upper Upscale hotels will drive the industry’s 2026 RevPAR growth – all due to ADR. This is consistent with K-shaped economy trends.
Individual market performance for Shadow Supply generally tracked overall hotel market performance in 2025. Shadow Supply stands to benefit from FIFA World Cup attendance and could mute otherwise expected RevPAR gains for traditional hotel supply in host cities in June and July.
The forward 30-day on-the-books demand across all segments portends a challenging 1Q26.
Financing terms have remained stable since last quarter. Banks, debt funds, and CMBS remain the most active sources for hotels. The forward SOFR curve suggests another 50bp of interest rate cuts in 2026, supportive of more transaction activity for the upcoming year.
Recently Opened and Under Construction volumes are finally starting to shrink as a percentage of stock, however a large backlog of projects in final approval and planning await financing and/or entitlement hurdles to move forward. Most of the hotels under construction are concentrated in upscale, upper midscale and midscale brands.